GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade growth to 3.9 percent, a significant jump from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The organization attributed this revision to stronger trade performance in the first half, supply chain adjustments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew 3.5 percent during the initial six months of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now predicts merchandise trade will expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in merchandise trade growth during the first half. AI-related products such as semiconductors and servers contributed to 47 percent of the total global merchandise trade increase, with trade in these items rising 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also indicated that worldwide expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The rising demand for computing hardware bolstered trade figures, even as other sectors faced setbacks from conflicts and transportation issues.
Adjustments in global supply chains were evident across major commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined roughly 24 percent in the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from other suppliers mitigated the decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. LNG exports saw only a 1 percent decrease. Additionally, worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade rerouted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI Goods Bolster Global Merchandise Trade
The positive outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for services trade. The WTO revised its 2026 services trade volume growth forecast downward from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, remaining only 0.4 percent higher overall in the first half. Growth in travel spending also slowed sharply between the two quarters.
Despite challenges in travel and transport, other service sectors performed better. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent in the first quarter from the previous year, with an estimated 12 percent growth in the second quarter. Financial services exports also rose 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027, alongside an anticipated global GDP increase of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade Growth Varies Significantly Across Regions
Regional forecasts highlight stark differences across the world economy. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports for 2026. North America is projected to see a 5.7 percent rise, while Africa’s exports are forecast to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is expected to record 3.4 percent growth, whereas Europe may see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with a forecasted fall of 17.2 percent in merchandise exports for the year.
Import growth also exhibits regional disparities. Asia is expected to see a 9.5 percent increase, Africa 8.9 percent, North America 1.4 percent, and Europe 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are forecast to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest figures demonstrate trade resilience while also revealing differing levels of exposure to economic and geopolitical challenges.