PARIS, November 12, 2025: Global demand for oil and gas will continue rising for at least the next quarter century unless governments make significant policy changes, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2025 released on Wednesday. The agency’s findings signal that current global energy policies remain far from aligning with international climate goals. According to the IEA, global oil demand is projected to increase from about 100 million barrels per day in 2024 to roughly 113 million barrels per day by 2050 under its “Current Policies Scenario.” This projection assumes no major new measures are adopted to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
Demand for natural gas is also expected to grow steadily over the same period, while coal use is set to peak later this decade before gradually declining. The report outlines that most of the increase in oil and gas consumption will come from emerging and developing economies, particularly in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, where energy demand is expanding rapidly due to economic growth and industrialization. The IEA noted that these regions are expected to account for around 80 percent of the rise in total global energy consumption by 2035. Electricity demand worldwide is forecast to increase by approximately 40 percent by 2035, driven by growing populations, industrial expansion, and the proliferation of data centers and electric appliances.
While renewable energy generation is expected to expand significantly led by solar and wind power it will not be sufficient under current policies to offset the continued rise in fossil fuel demand over the next two decades. The IEA’s latest projections contrast with its earlier scenarios, which had anticipated a faster transition away from fossil fuels based on commitments made under the Paris Agreement. The agency said the slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles, continued investment in oil and gas production, and insufficient progress in energy efficiency are contributing to the persistence of fossil fuel dependence.
Emerging economies drive the surge in energy consumption
While the report emphasizes that the transition to cleaner energy sources is underway, it warns that progress remains uneven across regions. Advanced economies, including the United States and members of the European Union, are expected to see a gradual decline in oil demand by the mid-2030s. In contrast, consumption is set to rise across developing nations where energy access and infrastructure remain limited. The IEA also noted that renewable capacity additions reached record levels in 2024, particularly in solar photovoltaic installations. However, it stated that even with continued growth, renewables will need to expand at twice the current pace to meet the agency’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
The report called for accelerated investments in clean energy technologies, grid modernization, and policy frameworks that ensure equitable energy transitions across all regions. In terms of global emissions, the IEA projected that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions would continue to increase until at least the early 2040s under existing policies. This trajectory, the agency said, would make it unlikely to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius target established under the Paris Agreement. The report reaffirmed that decisive government action remains essential to shift the global energy system toward sustainable growth. Without such intervention, fossil fuels are expected to maintain their dominant share of the energy mix through mid-century, underscoring the gap between current trends and stated climate objectives.
Global policies remain insufficient for net-zero alignment
The IEA, based in Paris, publishes its World Energy Outlook annually to provide comprehensive analysis of global energy trends, investment flows, and policy impacts. The 2025 edition presents one of its clearest assessments yet that the world remains on a trajectory of rising fossil fuel dependence in the absence of stronger and more coordinated global action. The agency reiterated that only sustained policy intervention, rapid technological innovation, and expanded investment in clean energy infrastructure can meaningfully alter this course toward a more sustainable and resilient global energy future. – By EuroWire News Desk.