MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal to reach 662 million tonnes of annual coal output by 2050 as part of a newly ratified industry development plan. This target is included within the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved this plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and sector growth.
The plan details four potential trajectories for coal industry growth through 2050. Under the primary scenario, production would increase to 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, ultimately reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. The other pathways project lower levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, Russia also set export targets. The main scenario envisions coal exports reaching 266.7 million tonnes by 2030, climbing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international trade.
Goals for Production and Export Volumes
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacity while expanding coal resources, with increased emphasis on Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions contributed 48.3% of national coal production in 2024, with projections to account for between 53.9% and 56.7% of total output by 2050. Russia reports having over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The plan also includes targets for coal processing and mining practices. Processed coal, excluding lignite, represented 58.9% in 2024, with an expected increase to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of the sector’s output in 2024, with the plan aiming to elevate this share to between 82% and 85%. The strategy also includes measures related to productivity, technological advancement, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal Sector Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia will implement the plan in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will prioritize coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final stage runs from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution alongside federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, with annual progress reports required by the government.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised plan at a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry strategy through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak highlighted the plan’s projection of a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050 and an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains the primary scenario rather than an absolute forecast.