MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – The Bank of Russia forecasts an average key rate of 13% to 15% for 2027, based on its proinflationary scenario. This projection is part of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2027 to 2029. As of the end of August 2026, Russia’s main interest rate was 14%. The scenario anticipates higher inflation pressures than those in the bank’s baseline economic outlook.
Under this proinflationary outlook, annual inflation is expected to be between 4.5% and 5.5% in 2027. The Bank of Russia aims for inflation to hit its 4% target in 2028, with an anticipated average key rate of 11% to 12%. The rate then falls to 8.5% to 9.5% in 2029, while inflation remains at 4%.
Economic growth across the forecast period is expected to stay moderate under consistent assumptions. The central bank projects GDP growth of 1% to 2% in 2027, 0.5% to 1.5% in 2028, and 1.5% to 2.5% in 2029. For 2026, GDP growth is projected between zero and 1%, with inflation ranging from 6% to 7%.
Proinflation Scenario Indicates Elevated Rate Trajectory
This scenario assumes increased domestic demand and slower supply growth compared to the baseline, alongside restrained expansion of production capacity and persistent inflation expectations. It features stronger wage growth relative to productivity, heightened labor market competition, increased protectionism, higher fiscal demand support, and intensified sanctions pressure.
Such conditions lead to a projected interest rate path higher than the baseline forecast, which estimates a 10.5% to 12.5% average key rate in 2027 and inflation at 4%. A separate disinflation scenario predicts an average rate of 9% to 11% in 2027, with inflation falling to 3% to 4%.
The Key Rate Stays at 14% in 2026
In July 2026, the Bank of Russia reduced its key rate to 14%, maintaining this level through August 31. This rate remains Russia’s primary monetary policy lever for controlling inflation and financial conditions, with a 4% annual inflation target guiding its medium-term policy approach.
A separate risk scenario envisions much higher inflation and interest rates, projecting an average key rate of 19% to 21% in 2027 and inflation between 11% and 13%. The 13% to 15% rate forecast applies solely to the proinflationary scenario; it is not applicable to the baseline or risk scenarios outlined in the Bank of Russia’s 2027 to 2029 framework.